Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 11.047090 12.658643 14.395564 16.403343 18.656698 21.103974 23.959359
2025-07-06 8.118111 10.175354 12.569036 15.546494 19.136264 23.309311 28.511263
2025-07-13 7.114664 9.436254 12.269834 15.957275 20.600556 26.222492 33.509986
2025-07-20 6.288554 8.777882 11.949525 16.245916 21.866858 28.918063 38.372033
2025-07-27 5.533194 8.083461 11.458775 16.195046 22.601045 30.886519 42.320978
2025-08-03 4.866104 7.419021 10.919850 15.994908 23.071701 32.482973 45.814766
2025-08-10 4.378910 6.943632 10.576678 16.001525 23.776882 34.377854 49.747967
2025-08-17 4.008538 6.593289 10.366607 16.156521 24.666427 36.534504 54.107106
2025-08-24 3.639456 6.202933 10.055747 16.124436 25.260772 38.279184 57.941328
2025-08-31 3.292098 5.808753 9.699537 15.984624 25.666847 39.748382 61.420122
2025-09-07 3.041288 5.542945 9.513581 16.079180 26.409811 41.718518 65.686354
2025-09-14 2.896987 5.438058 9.568572 16.543890 27.729512 44.584857 71.379694
2025-09-21 2.629922 5.103517 9.233302 16.373104 28.066141 46.014621 75.029824
2025-09-28 2.277521 4.583791 8.548337 15.579474 27.359303 45.803351 76.159371
2025-10-05 2.167304 4.489969 8.575866 15.968775 28.576596 48.623932 82.080276
2025-10-12 2.051392 4.373627 8.553015 16.265544 29.649178 51.252751 87.796469
2025-10-19 1.893419 4.160646 8.339749 16.211835 30.121158 52.925250 92.040174
2025-10-26 1.730319 3.920844 8.057475 16.012479 30.324942 54.157172 95.605388
2025-11-02 1.609555 3.754125 7.896853 16.018763 30.878938 55.980871 100.197575
2025-11-09 1.517465 3.637522 7.821439 16.174028 31.698030 58.274198 105.645367
2025-11-16 1.411147 3.479854 7.653477 16.141869 32.173423 59.994678 110.185042
2025-11-23 1.302271 3.305321 7.437876 16.001938 32.439290 61.356272 114.153313
2025-11-30 1.226622 3.197245 7.347319 16.096580 33.137870 63.490634 119.514652